I am sure many readers of this blog will be familiar with the 1993 comedy movie Groundhog Day. If not, and you're up for some light entertainment, do watch it. But Groundhog Day is defined as "a situation in which a series of unwelcome or tedious events appear to be recurring in exactly the same way." I don't know about you, but certain parts of the Middle East are beginning to look to me more and more like a Groundhog Day scenario.
Mind you, I don't remember anyone with true knowledge of the Middle East saying that the aftermath of the Arab Spring was going to be easy. The region is a conundrum and a kaleidoscope. And never forget the interpretation of the now famous Nostradamus prediction that the starting point of World War III will be the Middle East!
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The current nervousness all started with Arab Spring. The hopeful new shoots of a revolution that would turn the Middle East into a democratic paradise by deposing despotic dictators, or overturning at least decades if not centuries of feudal rule. The bands struck up a jolly tune to herald the new order, but although the band plays on, the music has turned funereal. And suddenly we are displaying shock, horror and dismay. Alright, it wasn't meant to happen this way but neither should we be as surprised as we apparently are, nor should we have expectations of a rapid solution.
I have to say that I still get amazed by the number of people who, as with China, look at the Middle East as if it is one largely homogeneous region and that everyone inside behaves roughly the same way, has the same aspirations, and that they all want to be like the West! How wrong can they be? (Statement, not a question).
But trying to explain the differences would take a book, not a blog, so I just want to look quickly at two existing situations in the Middle East that are currently in the news.
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